Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c90…17ef weather 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-4%) realized −$73 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate34%25W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$93
14 days−$97
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% −$44
world 18% +$2
other 16% −$45
tech 10% −$2
politics 4% −$3
culture 3% −$13
sports 2% −$12
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 16% -16.5%
≤30d 73 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 16% -14.8%
≤90d 73 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 16% -14.8%
all 73 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 16% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 16% -14.8%
10% -27.7% 8% -22.9%
15% -34.7% 1% -30.4%
20% -41.1% 1% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses25 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions33
Markets (closed)73 / 107
History coverage18d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $36 $35 −$2 (-4%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? No 70¢ 64¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? No 69¢ 67¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? No 63¢ 61¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? No 67¢ 66¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? No 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? No 86¢ 82¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22? No 80¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? No 69¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? No 73¢ 71¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? No 71¢ 71¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? No 69¢ 70¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 65¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 22? No 88¢ 80¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? No 53¢ 54¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 23? No 85¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 23? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $51 −$17 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 −$11 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Jun 21 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? Jun 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $7 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$4 -37%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by June 30? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 −$5 -15%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $177 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $7 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June Jun 21 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$9 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -10%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 −$4 -23%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -8%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$2 -13%
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June? Jun 21 $34 −$12 -35%
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? Jun 21 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 21 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 21 $44 −$2 -4%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 21 $28 +$5 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 +$3 +26%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 20 $19 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $112 +$20 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $34 +$11 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $66 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? SELL No 77¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $30 2h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 53¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $9 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? SELL No 70¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.11 · official $368.12 (match) · 378 history records