Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c8e…53f4 crypto 1644 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,680 (-4%) realized −$4,680 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate84%1388W / 256L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$296
14 days+$98
30 days−$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,979
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +7.2% -3.0% 90% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 162 -3.0% -12.3% 87% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 461 -1.4% -10.7% 89% 26% -13.8%
all 1644 +0.1% -9.4% 84% 35% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 35% -12.2%
10% -18.1% 18% -20.6%
15% -26.0% 9% -28.3%
20% -33.2% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$62 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,680
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1388 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1644 / 1644
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1644 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $609 +$48 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $587 +$26 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $542 +$61 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $513 +$35 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $462 +$69 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $515 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $294 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $292 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $466 +$69 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $406 +$76 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $349 +$70 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $79 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $262 +$53 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $178 +$243 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $139 +$43 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $124 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $111 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $582 −$582 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $553 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $517 +$44 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $462 +$73 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $417 +$55 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $334 +$107 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $316 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $348 −$346 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $340 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $336 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $149 −$147 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $135 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $129 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $113 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $109 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $89 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $609 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $587 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $542 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $513 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $462 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $515 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $308 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $294 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $292 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $466 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $406 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $349 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $79 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $262 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $178 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $139 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $124 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $111 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $582 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $553 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $517 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $462 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $417 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $334 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $316 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $33 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $348 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records