Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c8d…4f5c sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 712d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325 (-10%) realized −$329 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$419
7 days−$419
14 days−$419
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$7
politics 42% −$633
other 9% +$323
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +19.3% +8.0% 45% 42% -25.9%
≤30d 40 +19.3% +8.0% 45% 42% -25.9%
≤90d 40 +19.3% +8.0% 45% 42% -25.9%
all 51 +9.3% -1.1% 47% 37% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 37% -20.2%
10% -10.6% 37% -27.8%
15% -19.2% 37% -34.8%
20% -27.1% 31% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$43 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

712d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions22
Markets (closed)51 / 73
History coverage712d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ 50¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+3%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Carole Monnet 42¢ 42¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ 44¢ $52 $53 +$2 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 37¢ 32¢ $55 $48 −$7 (-12%)
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 51¢ 80¢ $26 $41 +$15 (+56%)
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Li 46¢ 45¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 68¢ 69¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Rio Noguchi 53¢ 58¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+10%)
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Kecmanovic 44¢ 39¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 23.5 Under 54¢ 53¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Bejlek 52¢ 50¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner HOTU 51¢ 44¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-15%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ 60¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Minaur vs. Diallo: Match O/U 21.5 Over 56¢ 53¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 45¢ 44¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Cecchinato vs. Caniato: Match O/U 21.5 Under 46¢ 42¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-9%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 39¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 60¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $18 +$16 +90%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
U.S. military action against Iran before November? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $695 −$470 -68%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $75 −$3 -3%
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter Jun 16 $28 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Dart (-1.5) vs Boulter (+1.5) Jun 16 $28 $0 -2%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $75 +$135 +180%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $22 +$23 +105%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $55 +$48 +86%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $44 +$29 +67%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 16 $72 −$71 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $63 +$48 +76%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$30 +140%
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $31 +$91 +291%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $74 +$91 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 +$20 +109%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $8 +$13 +172%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $80 +$38 +47%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $56 +$92 +165%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $180 +$101 +56%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Sep 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Sep 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomina Sep 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Aug 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Kamala president by Friday? Jul 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 11 $38 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $83 43m
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Bejlek 52¢ $21 57m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $9 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $13 1h
Cecchinato vs. Caniato: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $26 2h
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $22 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 51¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 51¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 51¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 39¢ $7 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 45¢ $11 4h
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell BUY Li 46¢ $35 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY No 51¢ $12 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY No 51¢ $5 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY No 51¢ $19 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY No 51¢ $5 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY No 51¢ $30 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $79 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 35¢ $24 8h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $4 8h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $51 8h
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $75 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $66 8h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Virtanen 51¢ $28 8h
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $28 8h
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $28 8h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $76 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $44 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.98 · official $611.00 (match) · 145 history records