Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c8c…e7e5 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$139 (+3%) realized +$88 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$342
7 days+$664
14 days+$362
30 days+$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$170
other 18% +$350
world 1% −$25
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 40% +10.9%
≤30d 24 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% -0.0%
≤90d 24 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% -0.0%
all 25 -18.7% -26.4% 36% 36% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 36% -7.0%
10% -33.5% 36% -15.9%
15% -39.9% 32% -24.0%
20% -45.8% 32% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$120 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage141d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 56¢ $50 $141 +$91 (+182%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $130 $139 +$9 (+7%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 52¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 33¢ $100 $23 −$77 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $348 +$207 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $199 +$267 +134%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$99 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $456 −$448 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $261 −$257 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $284 +$235 +83%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $418 +$422 +101%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$145 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $241 −$225 -93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $99 +$82 +83%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $245 +$678 +276%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $140 −$137 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $150 −$147 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $70 +$117 +165%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jan 31 $258 −$258 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $133 38m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $102 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 39¢ $81 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $102 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $348 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $466 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $199 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $456 24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $261 26h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 17¢ $10 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $101 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $182 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $418 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $15 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $149 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $16 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain $16 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $60 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $181 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $99 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $923 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 19¢ $59 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $186 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $140 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.37 · official $423.44 · 50 history records