trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 23? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 30? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "Jay Kelly" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December | Dec 30 | $1 | +$1 | +117% |
| >3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30? | Dec 06 | $1 | +$1 | +113% |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December | Dec 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec | Nov 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 23? | Nov 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Morgan Wallen win Entertainer of the Year at the 59th annual CMA | Nov 22 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November | Nov 16 | $1 | +$1 | +89% |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on | Nov 15 | $268 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 31 | $135 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 17 | $135 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | Oct 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 21 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 62% | 19% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.5% | 19% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -24.5% | 14% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -31.8% | 14% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -38.5% | 14% | -33.8% |