Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c87…c4a8 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 22% −$17
politics 10% −$12
crypto 7% −$11
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage142d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $198 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $250 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $695 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $308 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $145 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $344 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $449 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $422 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $388 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $641 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $431 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 31 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $369 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 5h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 6h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 12h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $16 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $42 14h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 20h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 24h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 32h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 33h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 34h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 39h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 46h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.95 · official $56.95 (match) · 1484 history records