Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c7f…8bf4 crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-7%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 39% -20.4%
≤30d 18 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 39% -20.4%
≤90d 18 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 39% -20.4%
all 18 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 39% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 39% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 33% -28.0%
15% -23.0% 22% -35.0%
20% -30.6% 11% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$47 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $170 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $106 −$46 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $90 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $295 −$177 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $189 +$51 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $126 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $68 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $34 +$62 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$30 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $85 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $121 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $96 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records