Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c7b…127c world 54 markets active 3h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 37% −$2
politics 15% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 58% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 0% -9.8%
all 54 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage324d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $69 −$4 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $23 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $98 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $17 −$1 -5%
Pakistan strike on India by Friday? Aug 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 07 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Aug 01 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 31 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 31 $59 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $43 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $19 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records