Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c79…4326 crypto 1687 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-2%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%908W / 612L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$38
14 days+$57
30 days+$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +15.8% +4.8% 54% 54% +4.0%
≤30d 1267 +10.4% -0.1% 64% 60% -1.1%
≤90d 1395 +6.2% -3.9% 61% 56% -3.3%
all 1520 +5.5% -4.6% 60% 56% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 56% -3.7%
10% -13.7% 51% -12.9%
15% -22.0% 44% -21.3%
20% -29.7% 40% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses908 / 612
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1520 / 1687
History coverage119d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 50¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +109%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +123%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +183%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.67 (match) · 3082 history records