Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c79…c10f crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%41W / 9L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$2
other 20% $0
tech 13% +$1
politics 8% $0
economics 4% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.4% -9.1% 82% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.8 per $1 lost it wins $10.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses41 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage493d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $24 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 21 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $9 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 62d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 93d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 93d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 121d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 148d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 150d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 150d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 182d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $31 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $27 211d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 240d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 241d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 241d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 271d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 273d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 273d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 302d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $31 302d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 332d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 97¢ $16 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.68 · official $34.68 (match) · 110 history records