Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c79…2acc world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$46 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 64L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$6
sports 28% +$1
other 19% −$8
politics 4% −$8
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% +$22
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$4
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 35 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 41 -0.6% -10.0% 27% 5% -9.5%
all 100 -3.8% -13.0% 36% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 7% -9.3%
10% -21.3% 5% -18.0%
15% -28.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage524d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $101 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $104 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $220 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $164 +$5 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $30 −$9 -29%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $211 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $321 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $78 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $242 −$4 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $95 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 −$2 -46%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $92 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $114 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $115 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $229 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $105 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $107 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $30 +$12 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $28 +$4 +15%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $92 +$1 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $239 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $553 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,103 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $552 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 -26%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 25 $24 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $101 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $39 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $65 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $104 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $6 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $21 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $17 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $41 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $41 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $8 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $90 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $84 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.05 · official $93.25 (match) · 383 history records