Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c79…1c9c other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$174 (-10%) realized −$172 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$192
14 days−$191
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$39
sports 16% −$137
crypto 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -20.8% -28.3% 49% 46% -20.6%
≤30d 43 -18.4% -26.1% 49% 47% -20.3%
≤90d 43 -18.4% -26.1% 49% 47% -20.3%
all 43 -18.4% -26.1% 49% 47% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 47% -20.3%
10% -33.2% 37% -27.9%
15% -39.7% 28% -34.9%
20% -45.6% 14% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$29 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $158 −$123 -78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $141 +$17 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $336 +$53 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $55 +$34 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $72 −$54 -75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $55 +$17 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 −$5 -10%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $93 −$32 -35%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 +$17 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$32 -63%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$11 -34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $96 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $158 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $141 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $121 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $121 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $127 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $127 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $89 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $55 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $72 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $55 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.09 · official $94.09 (match) · 97 history records