Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c79…50c4 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$525 (+10%) realized +$496 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days+$308
14 days+$290
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$223
sports 7% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.3% -6.6% 48% 39% -0.7%
≤30d 29 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 38% -2.3%
≤90d 29 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 38% -2.3%
all 29 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 38% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 38% -2.3%
10% -20.0% 28% -11.7%
15% -27.7% 24% -20.2%
20% -34.8% 24% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$45 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized+$496
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage13d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $350 $389 +$39 (+11%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $300 $284 −$16 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $63 −$32 -50%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$41 +265%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $52 +$76 +147%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $89 −$61 -69%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $97 +$209 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$113 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $309 +$198 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,022 +$84 +8%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $202 +$30 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$14 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,125 +$153 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $206 −$45 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $63 −$52 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $53 −$32 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $153 +$50 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $559 −$90 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $156 +$133 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $47 −$28 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 45m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $31 46m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $63 49m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $307 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 11h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $56 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $15 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 55¢ $127 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $14 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $3 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $34 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $51 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 20h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 25h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 43h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 43h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 43h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $73 47h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $306 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $115 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.90 · official $691.94 (match) · 97 history records