Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9C 0x9c77…23b6 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$40 (+4%) realized −$5 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$29
crypto 13% −$1
sports 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +68.8% +52.7% 50% 50% -71.7%
≤30d 3 +12.5% +1.8% 33% 33% -75.1%
≤90d 3 +12.5% +1.8% 33% 33% -75.1%
all 3 +12.5% +1.8% 33% 33% -75.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 33% -75.1%
10% -7.9% 33% -77.5%
15% -16.8% 33% -79.6%
20% -25.0% 33% -81.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$58 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$850
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)3 / 14
History coverage20d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $100 $223 +$123 (+123%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $118 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 20d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.27 · official $850.39 (match) · 36 history records