Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c76…c926 sports 692 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Total PnL +$345,800 (+35%) realized +$328,590 · open +$2,486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%289W / 436L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,432per market
Trades / day235.2pace
Fees−$14,868est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$34,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,225
7 days+$181,782
14 days+$328,590
30 days+$328,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$402,701
other 6% +$11,814
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 609 -29.2% -35.9% 31% 31% +32.4%
≤30d 725 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 40% +43.0%
≤90d 725 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 40% +43.0%
all 725 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 40% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover235.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 40% +43.0%
10% -24.9% 39% +29.3%
15% ← realistic here -32.2% 38% +16.8%
20% -38.8% 36% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +58% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +84% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,547 vs −$273 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.77 per $1 lost it wins $3.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$34,004
Realized+$328,590
Unrealized+$2,486
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses289 / 436
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$14,868
Open positions75
Markets (closed)725 / 692
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1,432
Trades / day235.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 725 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 68¢ 72¢ $8,920 $9,379 +$459 (+5%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 46¢ 48¢ $6,900 $7,275 +$375 (+5%)
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? No 76¢ 78¢ $4,752 $4,908 +$156 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 60¢ $1,811 $1,959 +$148 (+8%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 64¢ 72¢ $1,558 $1,741 +$183 (+12%)
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) Cecchinato 32¢ 64¢ $473 $954 +$481 (+102%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 85¢ 90¢ $850 $905 +$55 (+6%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 56¢ 48¢ $1,014 $873 −$140 (-14%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 28¢ $386 $499 +$114 (+29%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 92¢ 96¢ $343 $359 +$16 (+5%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 73¢ 84¢ $296 $342 +$47 (+16%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 24¢ $267 $338 +$70 (+26%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 37¢ 44¢ $269 $324 +$55 (+20%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Hanwha Eagles Lotte Giants 43¢ 71¢ $180 $298 +$117 (+65%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 47¢ 100¢ $122 $259 +$137 (+113%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 30¢ 26¢ $294 $252 −$42 (-14%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? No 51¢ 76¢ $165 $245 +$80 (+49%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 41¢ 60¢ $162 $237 +$75 (+46%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 23¢ 14¢ $367 $228 −$139 (-38%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 90¢ 90¢ $193 $194 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Young Ninjas 43¢ 44¢ $189 $194 +$5 (+2%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ 28¢ $137 $169 +$33 (+24%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 33¢ 38¢ $146 $166 +$19 (+13%)
Korea Republic leading at halftime? No 77¢ 82¢ $139 $148 +$9 (+6%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 75¢ $132 $146 +$14 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 14 $371 −$371 -100%
Nuno Borges vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ball State Cardinals vs. Northern Illinois Huskies: O/U 132.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 14 $520 −$520 -100%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Set Handicap: Alexandrova (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $196 −$196 -100%
Nets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $443 −$443 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $480 −$480 -100%
Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Anisimova (+1.5) Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
1H Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Jun 14 $247 −$247 -100%
Oregon Ducks vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 146.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Transylvania Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 14 $555 −$555 -100%
Max Christie: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Galarneau vs. Gojo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks (-10.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Duckworth vs. Kozlov: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $283 −$283 -100%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Panthers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Sinner vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5 Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Djere vs. Nava: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
UNCW Seahawks vs. William & Mary Tribe: O/U 157.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Hersonissos 2: Henry Bernet vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Set Handicap: Kalinina (-1.5) vs Friedsam (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 14 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Antalya 2: Alina Charaeva vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Crawford vs. Ajdukovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-7.5) Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 14 $430 −$430 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $89 4m
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 48¢ $24 14m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $2 46m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $3 46m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $3 46m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $2 46m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $3 46m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $2 46m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $4 47m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 41¢ $4 47m
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 76¢ $4,752 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $209 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $3,665 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $4 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $76 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $3,545 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $248 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $4 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $165 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $7 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $287 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $3,570 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $6,900 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $11,700 3h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 46¢ $4 3h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 46¢ $2 3h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 46¢ $2 3h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 46¢ $2 3h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 46¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,003.55 · official $34,003.89 (match) · 3500 history records