Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c76…cfba crypto 612 markets active 9h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-8%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%230W / 382L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -30.0% -36.7% 38% 32% -26.6%
≤30d 133 -30.0% -36.7% 38% 32% -26.6%
≤90d 158 -32.5% -38.9% 37% 30% -28.9%
all 612 -23.2% -30.5% 38% 32% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 32% -22.0%
10% -37.1% 26% -29.5%
15% -43.2% 21% -36.3%
20% -48.8% 15% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses230 / 382
Open positions0
Markets (closed)612 / 612
History coverage130d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 612 Trades
no open positions (210 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1736 history records