Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9c75…91a8
other · 11 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$88 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$106
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3,363
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage79d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit18%
Chart Positions 8 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,253 $1,251 −$2 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,040 $930 −$110 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $619 $612 −$8 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $304 $270 −$34 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $189 $234 +$45 (+24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $61 $63 +$2 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 95% −$145
crypto 5% +$45
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $38 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $81 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $162 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $83 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $523 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $66 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $66 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $517 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $360 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $76 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $63 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $162 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $371 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $516 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $158 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.8% +25.6% 67% 67% +63.4%
≤30d 3 +38.8% +25.6% 67% 67% +63.4%
≤90d 3 +38.8% +25.6% 67% 67% +63.4%
all 3 +38.8% +25.6% 67% 67% +63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.6% 67% +63.4%
10% +13.6% 67% +47.8%
15% +2.6% 67% +33.5%
20% -7.5% 33% +20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,362.82 · official $3,362.82 (match) · 116 history records