Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c74…c059 crypto 729 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$316 (-7%) realized −$316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%493W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$7
14 days+$2
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$302
sports 20% −$6
other 9% −$41
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.6% -20.9% 67% 67% -19.2%
≤30d 342 -4.6% -13.7% 66% 66% -12.6%
≤90d 729 -8.1% -16.8% 68% 49% -16.9%
all 729 -8.1% -16.8% 68% 49% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 49% -16.9%
10% -24.8% 35% -24.9%
15% -32.1% 21% -32.1%
20% -38.7% 14% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses493 / 236
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)729 / 729
History coverage67d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 729 Trades
no open positions (180 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +105%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +55%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 7d
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 8d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.43 · official $5.43 (match) · 1740 history records