Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c72…2d30 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$10
politics 15% −$1
other 8% +$1
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 0% -11.1%
all 41 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage464d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $42 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $64 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $62 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $84 −$7 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18? Apr 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $2 $0 +21%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +3%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $7 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $20 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $29 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $10 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records