Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c6f…8b32 crypto 779 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,170 (-12%) realized −$3,997 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate34%236W / 452L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$2,696
other 34% −$45
world 14% −$402
sports 9% −$747
politics 4% −$97
finance 2% −$138
tech 0% −$14
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -40.2% -45.9% 27% 15% -25.4%
≤30d 96 -37.2% -43.2% 34% 20% -41.3%
≤90d 315 -23.2% -30.5% 35% 21% -16.8%
all 688 -22.3% -29.7% 34% 19% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 19% -16.4%
10% -36.4% 15% -24.4%
15% -42.6% 13% -31.7%
20% -48.2% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$1,171
Realized−$3,997
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses236 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions126
Markets (closed)688 / 779
History coverage237d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 126 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 70¢ 65¢ $502 $467 −$35 (-7%)
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? No 21¢ 28¢ $268 $363 +$95 (+35%)
Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? No 44¢ 22¢ $257 $125 −$132 (-51%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 74¢ 72¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? No 14¢ 12¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 66¢ 49¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 97¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $0 −$1 -374%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,600 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,400 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on November 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $58 −$21 -36%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $64 +$9 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 14 $3 +$10 +340%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 14 $32 −$11 -34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $1 +$7 +692%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 14 $326 −$76 -23%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +212%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 74¢ $20 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $500 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 73¢ $2 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 67¢ $17 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 83¢ $2 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 13h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $5 13h
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? BUY No 28¢ $2 13h
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? BUY No 27¢ $3 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 67¢ $559 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 43¢ $302 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 42¢ $54 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 20h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 39¢ $44 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.44 · official $1,171.45 (match) · 2175 history records