Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9C 0x9c6c…cf8d other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized −$4 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$18
sports 35% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.9% +0.3% 57% 57% -6.3%
≤30d 14 +10.9% +0.3% 57% 57% -6.3%
≤90d 14 +10.9% +0.3% 57% 57% -6.3%
all 14 +10.9% +0.3% 57% 57% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 57% -6.3%
10% -9.3% 50% -15.2%
15% -18.0% 43% -23.4%
20% -26.1% 21% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 61¢ 81¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $50 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $29 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.05 · official $70.06 (match) · 31 history records