Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c6b…499f other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%35W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% +$1
other 13% +$10
sports 1% −$16
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤30d 4 +6.5% -3.6% 75% 75% +1.9%
≤90d 15 -17.3% -25.2% 67% 47% -12.7%
all 57 +3.4% -6.4% 61% 30% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 30% -9.8%
10% -15.4% 23% -18.4%
15% -23.6% 16% -26.3%
20% -31.1% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses35 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage589d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $2 $0 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 14 $11 +$2 +20%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? Apr 08 $38 +$8 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 24 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 17 $1 −$1 -55%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 17 $2 +$8 +352%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $2 +$8 +303%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 04 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 17 to Feb 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 22 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 13 to Feb 21 $5 +$9 +188%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to Feb 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 17 to Fe Feb 19 $19 +$1 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 17 $9 +$2 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Oct 31 $6 $0 +4%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18? Apr 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11? Apr 11 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11? Apr 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $1 +$2 +173%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -62%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $7 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21? Feb 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14? Feb 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? Feb 14 $1 $0 +9%
Solana above $215 on January 24? Feb 14 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 44h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $2 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $2 28d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 35¢ $3 33d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $2 33d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 32¢ $2 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 42d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 63d
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $11 72d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 75¢ $10 76d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $6 77d
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? SELL No 99¢ $46 77d
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 83¢ $38 85d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 87d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 87d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL No 71¢ $12 92d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 78¢ $13 92d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 95d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL Yes 1¢ $1 98d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY Yes 3¢ $1 99d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 22¢ $2 103d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 108d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 109d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to BUY No 95¢ $15 116d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 17 to SELL No 80¢ $5 121d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 17 to BUY No 80¢ $5 121d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 BUY No 61¢ $2 123d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to BUY Yes 41¢ $6 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 107 history records