Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c69…b5ec other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$69
sports 32% +$84
tech 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.0% -6.8% 34% 34% -10.5%
≤30d 44 +3.0% -6.8% 34% 34% -10.5%
≤90d 44 +3.0% -6.8% 34% 34% -10.5%
all 44 +3.0% -6.8% 34% 34% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 34% -10.5%
10% -15.7% 30% -19.1%
15% -23.9% 27% -26.9%
20% -31.3% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage16d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
France to win the second half? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$12 -64%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $16 −$8 -52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -23%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$19 +364%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +43%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +22%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$26 +259%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$57 +562%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +95%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +219%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 11 $21 −$7 -35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $18 −$8 -46%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 58m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $9 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 8h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $5 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 12h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 12h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $17 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.07 · official $83.08 (match) · 125 history records