Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9C 0x9c67…a644 world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$403 (-15%) realized −$403 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$402
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$2
other 24% −$323
sports 12% +$16
tech 4% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 -20.7% -28.2% 33% 0% -23.3%
≤90d 9 -20.7% -28.2% 33% 0% -23.3%
all 9 -20.7% -28.2% 33% 0% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 0% -23.3%
10% -35.1% 0% -30.6%
15% -41.4% 0% -37.3%
20% -47.1% 0% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$85 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $303 +$3 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $322 +$2 +1%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 19 $320 $0 +0%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $103 −$93 -90%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $327 −$7 -2%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) Jun 09 $312 +$16 +5%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 09 $307 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records