Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9c66…21eb other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,959 (+28%) realized +$3,187 · open −$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2,618per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,408
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -17.7% -25.6% 0% 0% -26.0%
≤30d 3 +34.8% +22.0% 33% 33% +43.0%
≤90d 3 +34.8% +22.0% 33% 33% +43.0%
all 3 +34.8% +22.0% 33% 33% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.0% 33% +43.0%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 33% +29.3%
15% -0.3% 33% +16.8%
20% -10.1% 33% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,227 vs −$295 · ×14.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.16 per $1 lost it wins $7.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2,307
Realized+$3,187
Unrealized−$228
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2,618
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2,535 $2,307 −$228 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 24 $2,196 −$420 -19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 24 $1,046 −$170 -16%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 30 $3,021 +$4,227 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 17¢ $860 3m
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $727 4m
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $102 4m
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 4m
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 17¢ $906 5h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $606 5h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $297 5h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 12¢ $876 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $867 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,046 12d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $148 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $60 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $444 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $408 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 24d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 20¢ $957 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $149 24d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $1,901 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 25d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $659 25d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $667 25d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $1,914 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,307.13 · official $1,623.53 · 59 history records