Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c66…7017 weather 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$598 (+4%) realized +$612 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%39W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$764
14 days+$764
30 days+$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$750
economics 3% −$132
world 0% −$4
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 3% -4.7%
≤30d 39 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 3% -4.7%
≤90d 40 +4.3% -5.6% 98% 2% -4.7%
all 43 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 2% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -6.0%
10% -19.2% 0% -15.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -23.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$47 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.09 per $1 lost it wins $4.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1,749
Realized+$612
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses39 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage278d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? No 93¢ 91¢ $1,010 $986 −$24 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? No 91¢ 92¢ $748 $758 +$10 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,394 +$164 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $197 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $755 +$39 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $707 +$50 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $602 +$38 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $795 +$65 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $382 +$21 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $370 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $511 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $492 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $603 +$21 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $891 +$47 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $343 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $476 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $255 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $208 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $462 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $270 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $568 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $309 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $448 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $305 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $488 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $152 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $485 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $146 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $310 +$25 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $179 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $187 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $109 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $71 −$4 -6%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jan 25 $404 −$112 -28%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 18 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $295 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $64 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $62 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $59 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $42 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $216 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $189 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $605 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $81 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $1,559 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $205 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $47 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $43 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $27 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $65 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $21 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,748.83 · official $1,748.83 (match) · 362 history records