Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c64…cb99 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-6%) realized −$87 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$32
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$11
other 2% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +19.0% +7.7% 32% 29% -6.9%
≤30d 83 +10.1% -0.4% 33% 29% -10.2%
≤90d 83 +10.1% -0.4% 33% 29% -10.2%
all 83 +10.1% -0.4% 33% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 29% -10.2%
10% -9.9% 29% -18.8%
15% -18.6% 29% -26.7%
20% -26.6% 28% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$14 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 56
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 26¢ 32¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+25%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 17¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $19 +$137 +711%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $7 −$2 -22%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $10 −$9 -85%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $20 −$20 -96%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $50 −$29 -58%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $68 −$67 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $86 −$85 -98%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $70 −$69 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $41 +$64 +158%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $40 +$18 +43%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $41 +$35 +86%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $20 +$79 +388%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$31 +307%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $30 +$22 +74%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $79 +$67 +84%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $9 +$44 +473%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $34 −$34 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $20 −$11 -55%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $25 −$20 -79%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $20 +$46 +226%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $5 +$37 +712%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $16 +$31 +188%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 +$16 +158%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $7 +$10 +139%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $20 −$10 -49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $10 +$22 +213%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$3 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 26¢ $51 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Washington Mystics 100¢ $156 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 12¢ $19 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 17¢ $6 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 22¢ $6 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 27¢ $7 4h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Golden State Valkyries $2 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 34¢ $6 5h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 30¢ $5 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 15¢ $3 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 62¢ $9 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 62¢ $9 5h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Golden State Valkyries 19¢ $10 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 62¢ $3 8h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 18¢ $2 8h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 42¢ $3 27h
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva $1 33h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala $1 33h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 23¢ $20 33h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Daniel Altmaier 14¢ $21 33h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 33¢ $50 33h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 38¢ $28 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 37¢ $25 35h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 45¢ $29 35h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 38¢ $41 35h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 66¢ $40 35h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $105 35h
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $58 35h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 55¢ $20 36h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 40¢ $20 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.64 · official $62.64 (match) · 143 history records