Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c63…c790 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1
world 28% −$1
politics 13% +$3
finance 6% $0
economics 3% +$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 53 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.1%
10% -19.0% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage464d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 85¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $123 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 07 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $47 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $47 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $47 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $39 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $47 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $47 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $3 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $3 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $25 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $25 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $38 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $42 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $3 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.75 · official $46.75 (match) · 173 history records