Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9c63…5f5d
crypto · 45 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$45 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage40d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 2 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will JD Vance say "Worker" in Des Moines? No 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 08 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 07 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 06 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 06 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 05 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 05 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 05 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 05 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 05 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 05 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 05 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 05 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 05 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 05 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 05 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 05 $4 +$3 +70%
Exact Score: Everton FC 1 - 1 Manchester City FC? May 05 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1PM ET May 04 $15 −$1 -6%
Will JD Vance say "Worker" in Des Moines? May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$47
other 9% +$2
weather 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $10 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +21.3% +9.7% 67% 33% +18.5%
≤30d 3 +21.3% +9.7% 67% 33% +18.5%
≤90d 43 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 35% -24.5%
all 43 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 35% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 35% -24.5%
10% -35.9% 30% -31.7%
15% -42.1% 30% -38.3%
20% -47.8% 28% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.59 · official $3.59 (match) · 130 history records