Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c5f…a191 weather 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%156W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$25
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 170 -0.7% -10.2% 92% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 170 -0.7% -10.2% 92% 0% -10.0%
all 170 -0.7% -10.2% 92% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses156 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage15d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 30? Jun 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 30? Jun 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? Jun 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or below on June 30? Jun 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 30? Jun 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on June 30? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 29? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on June 29? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 29? Jun 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? Jun 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? Jun 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? Jun 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 29? Jun 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $241 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? Jun 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or below on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or below on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.18 · official $70.18 (match) · 716 history records