Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9C 0x9c5a…9bb7 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+4%) realized +$76 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$45
other 10% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 38% -5.8%
≤30d 26 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 38% -5.8%
≤90d 26 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 38% -5.8%
all 26 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 38% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 38% -5.8%
10% -17.5% 38% -14.8%
15% -25.5% 38% -23.0%
20% -32.8% 35% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$45 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions11
Markets (closed)26 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 58¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 73¢ 72¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$116 +226%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $169 +$92 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $27 +$173 +650%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $19 +$31 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $159 +$107 +67%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $58 −$57 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $49 +$46 +93%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $49 +$60 +124%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 14h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 14h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $31 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $50 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $39 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $51 26h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 38h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $169 38h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $266 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $159 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $58 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $19 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.76 · official $483.76 (match) · 47 history records