Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9C 0x9c55…c532 sports 26 markets active 5h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16,412 (+10%) realized +$16,418 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$6,201per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days+$4,094
14 days+$4,094
30 days+$4,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$14,755
sports 5% +$1,570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +50.2% +35.9% 58% 58% +31.9%
≤30d 19 +50.2% +35.9% 58% 58% +31.9%
≤90d 19 +50.2% +35.9% 58% 58% +31.9%
all 22 +34.7% +21.9% 55% 50% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 50% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here +10.2% 50% -9.8%
15% -0.5% 50% -18.5%
20% -10.2% 45% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,701 vs −$408 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.01 per $1 lost it wins $5.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$1,211
Realized+$16,418
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage593d
Avg bet$6,201
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ 64¢ $352 $355 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $312 $309 −$3 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $253 $250 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $317 +$333 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $376 −$369 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $530 −$525 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $414 −$408 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $512 +$538 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $274 +$276 +101%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $414 −$185 -45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $316 +$284 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $477 +$723 +152%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $617 +$383 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $398 −$392 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $551 +$1,249 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $552 −$540 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $836 +$364 +44%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $364 −$355 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $215 +$1,285 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $515 −$506 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $911 +$959 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $619 +$981 +158%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $150,000 +$13,031 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 02 $570 −$570 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $304 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $257 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $317 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $356 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $376 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $106 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $414 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $424 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $317 25h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 69¢ $222 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $274 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $316 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $414 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $512 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $398 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $617 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $477 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $551 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $552 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $836 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $515 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $215 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $348 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $877 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $581 6d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 25¢ $225 228d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $150,000 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,211.25 · official $1,211.25 (match) · 43 history records