Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9c53…31ad world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate46%28W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$27
politics 30% −$40
other 10% +$27
sports 2% −$2
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.4% -7.3% 42% 8% -8.4%
≤30d 31 +75.3% +58.6% 52% 16% -8.1%
≤90d 38 +61.5% +46.1% 53% 13% -8.6%
all 61 +32.8% +20.1% 46% 20% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.1% 20% -9.2%
10% +8.6% 20% -17.9%
15% -1.9% 13% -25.8%
20% -11.5% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage526d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 58¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $129 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $62 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $59 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $195 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $6 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $55 +$5 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $51 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $54 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $22 +$4 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 +$1 +77%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $6 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $228 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 01 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $229 $0 +0%
Holy Cross vs. Colgate Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
George Washington vs. Loyola Chicago Feb 26 $5 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Knicks Feb 25 $6 $0 -4%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw? Feb 18 $5 $0 -1%
Long Beach State vs. Hawai'i Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Aliskerov vs. Muniz Feb 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 8? Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Jenkins vs. Santos Feb 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Wofford vs. Mercer Feb 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MIBR win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? Feb 08 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Trump say "Israel" 5+ times during his February 4 press conferenc Feb 06 $15 +$4 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 35h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $27 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 84¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 84¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $61 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $49 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $64 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $63 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records