Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c51…07a4 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-3%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$7
other 17% −$41
sports 17% +$7
politics 15% −$57
economics 2% $0
weather 1% +$5
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +1.0% -8.6% 56% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 33 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 0% -9.1%
all 73 -17.9% -25.7% 45% 7% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 7% -12.1%
10% -32.8% 5% -20.5%
15% -39.3% 4% -28.2%
20% -45.3% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 40
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage549d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 45¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $59 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $93 +$10 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $39 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $16 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $294 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $402 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $293 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? Apr 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space? Mar 20 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 27 $37 +$3 +9%
Wofford vs. Western Carolina Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Nets Feb 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Feb 25 $27 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Feb 25 $25 $0 +0%
Texas A&M Commerce vs. New Orleans Feb 24 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitlord vs. Korean Jew Feb 23 $16 +$23 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $53 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $4 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $5 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $36 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $3 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $11 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $17 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $17 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $7 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $51 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.52 · official $52.47 · 259 history records