Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9C 0x9c4e…1502 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$427 (-25%) realized −$465 · open +$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$242per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$8

7 days+$8

14 days+$8

30 days−$661

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-15.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+2.1%	-7.6%	100%	0%	-7.6%
≤30d	3	-66.0%	-69.2%	33%	0%	-65.7%
≤90d	3	-66.0%	-69.2%	33%	0%	-65.7%
all	6	-6.2%	-15.1%	50%	33%	-37.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.1%	33%	-37.3%
10%	-23.3%	33%	-43.3%
15%	-30.7%	33%	-48.8%
20%	-37.5%	33%	-53.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -62% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$75 vs −$224 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage

Net worth$255

Realized−$465

Unrealized+$38

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage233d

Avg bet$242

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	83¢	98¢	$216	$255	+$38 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$395	+$8	+2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 04	$188	−$185	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$495	−$484	-98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 10	$199	+$112	+56%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$97	+$103	+106%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Oct 31	$99	−$2	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	83¢	$217	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$217	1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	47¢	$188	16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	17¢	$187	17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$395	18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	19¢	$495	21d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	64¢	$199	223d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	SELL T1	99¢	$200	232d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	BUY T1	48¢	$97	232d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	47¢	$97	232d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	48¢	$99	232d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.64 · official $254.25 (match) · 31 history records