Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c4e…1f10 weather 1579 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 305d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$294 (-0%) realized −$321 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate92%1447W / 124L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$428
14 days+$267
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$138
other 9% −$649
tech 2% +$93
crypto 1% −$198
politics 0% −$393
world 0% −$210
sports 0% +$21
culture 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 509 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 1441 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 13% -10.7%
all 1571 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 17% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 17% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 6% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$173 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$2,369
Realized−$321
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1447 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1571 / 1579
History coverage306d ⚠
Avg bet$192
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $455 $456 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $350 $353 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $280 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $300 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $219 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $145 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $250 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $300 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $300 54m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $200 57m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $350 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $250 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $255 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $280 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $300 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $184 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 18h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $107 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $250 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 22h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,369.34 · official $2,369.34 (match) · 3433 history records