Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c4d…f490 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$250 (+42%) realized +$261 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +81.4% +64.1% 33% 33% +38.5%
≤30d 9 +81.4% +64.1% 33% 33% +38.5%
≤90d 9 +81.4% +64.1% 33% 33% +38.5%
all 9 +81.4% +64.1% 33% 33% +38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.1% 33% +38.5%
10% +48.4% 33% +25.2%
15% +34.1% 33% +13.1%
20% +20.9% 33% +2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$56 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 60¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 9¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $72 −$71 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $51 +$48 +94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$486 +944%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 +$40 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $71 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $72 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $72 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $62 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $51 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 43h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 44h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 52¢ $537 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 6¢ $54 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $14 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.11 · official $129.11 (match) · 16 history records