Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c4b…8a81 sports 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,405 (+1%) realized +$10,276 · open −$7,871
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%296W / 170L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$1,615est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$11,700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$6,685
other 25% −$3,180
finance 16% +$3,512
crypto 8% +$1,241
world 1% +$92
tech 1% +$872
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -62.0% -65.6% 24% 14% -59.7%
≤30d 78 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 42% -6.7%
≤90d 466 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 47% -7.7%
all 466 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 47% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 47% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 34% -16.6%
15% -26.5% 24% -24.6%
20% -33.7% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$177 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$11,700
Realized+$10,276
Unrealized−$7,871
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses296 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,615
Open positions18
Markets (closed)466 / 478
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$409
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $1,952 $2,172 +$220 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,619 $1,764 +$145 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,538 $1,653 +$114 (+7%)
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 81¢ 46¢ $2,205 $1,270 −$935 (-42%)
Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 86¢ 85¢ $783 $774 −$9 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 78¢ 99¢ $420 $535 +$115 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $454 $499 +$45 (+10%)
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 87¢ 25¢ $1,719 $496 −$1,224 (-71%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 83¢ 85¢ $471 $480 +$9 (+2%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 63¢ 50¢ $556 $438 −$118 (-21%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 60¢ 47¢ $543 $423 −$120 (-22%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $276 $293 +$17 (+6%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Paper Rex 66¢ 79¢ $200 $239 +$39 (+20%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 56¢ 100¢ $114 $204 +$90 (+79%)
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? Yes 75¢ 2¢ $6,349 $169 −$6,180 (-97%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 78¢ 52¢ $232 $153 −$79 (-34%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Leviatán Esports 53¢ 57¢ $65 $70 +$5 (+8%)
Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 75¢ 67¢ $75 $67 −$8 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $237 +$59 +25%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $315 +$170 +54%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $182 +$2 +1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $201 +$103 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $386 −$43 -11%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $141 −$141 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $181 −$181 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $576 −$170 -30%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 19 $219 −$219 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 19 $238 −$238 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 19 $350 −$350 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 19 $461 −$461 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 19 $595 −$595 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $477 +$43 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 19 $544 −$544 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $859 +$1,235 +144%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $186 +$419 +226%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $366 +$138 +38%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 02 $93 +$37 +40%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $1,422 +$271 +19%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $254 +$32 +13%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $286 +$33 +12%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $229 +$6 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 01 $764 +$146 +19%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $852 +$199 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,422 +$84 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $439 +$66 +15%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 31 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $603 −$379 -63%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup May 31 $1,196 +$272 +23%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 3 Winner May 31 $233 +$23 +10%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 31 $550 −$127 -23%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $441 −$441 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner May 30 $293 +$233 +80%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 30 $400 −$57 -14%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner May 30 $196 +$107 +55%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 30 $93 +$207 +223%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $182 −$38 -21%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $58 −$58 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $416 −$30 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $646 +$117 +18%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May? May 30 $913 +$137 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $9 40m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $193 40m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $197 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $85 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $15 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $9 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $237 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 98¢ $322 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 95¢ $95 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 95¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 95¢ $60 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 95¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $192 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $123 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 36¢ $184 7h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $3 9h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $7 10h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $55 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $182 10h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 53¢ $148 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 53¢ $11 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $342 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $108 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,700.44 · official $11,699.83 (match) · 3500 history records