Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9C 0x9c47…4eed crypto 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%110W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$6
crypto 41% +$8
other 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +2.6% -7.1% 75% 44% -6.4%
≤30d 77 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 44% -6.5%
≤90d 163 -2.2% -11.6% 67% 50% -8.2%
all 163 -2.2% -11.6% 67% 50% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 50% -8.2%
10% -20.0% 34% -17.0%
15% -27.7% 26% -25.0%
20% -34.8% 18% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses110 / 53
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage43d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$1 +6%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $9 +$3 +32%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $11 −$2 -22%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $3 $0 +14%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 21 $21 −$5 -24%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $5 −$1 -27%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $33 −$4 -12%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $42 −$10 -24%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $70 +$4 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $63 +$7 +12%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $48 +$14 +29%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $45 +$5 +10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $32 +$6 +18%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $45 +$9 +19%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $40 +$6 +16%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $7 +$2 +27%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records