Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9C 0x9c43…5f27 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$985 (-1%) realized −$986 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$828per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$884
politics 31% −$138
sports 16% +$32
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 13% -10.4%
10% -16.8% 13% -18.9%
15% -24.8% 11% -26.8%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,040) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$18 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized−$986
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage136d
Avg bet$828
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $575 $576 +$1 (+0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $448 $447 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 27 $451 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $404 +$2 +1%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,978 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $708 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $271 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $359 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $357 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $5,120 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,009 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $2,010 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,535 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $950 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $3,882 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $436 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? Apr 28 $659 +$1 +0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $411 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,232 −$9 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,483 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,763 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,383 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,432 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $2,116 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $641 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $448 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $448 19h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $449 20h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $450 23h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $451 25h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $448 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $449 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $449 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $450 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $450 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $451 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $450 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $451 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $575 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $440 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $441 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $619 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $620 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $627 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $628 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $512 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $513 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $523 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $524 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $605 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $605 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $507 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $508 21d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $516 23d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $517 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023.84 · official $1,023.84 (match) · 460 history records