Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9C 0x9c41…dd45 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$7 (-41%) realized −$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-18.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-9.8%	-18.3%	20%	20%	-46.4%
≤30d	5	-9.8%	-18.3%	20%	20%	-46.4%
≤90d	5	-9.8%	-18.3%	20%	20%	-46.4%
all	5	-9.8%	-18.3%	20%	20%	-46.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.3%	20%	-46.4%
10%	-26.2%	20%	-51.6%
15%	-33.3%	20%	-56.3%
20%	-39.8%	20%	-60.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -41% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$7	+351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records