Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c40…57b5 politics 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$22
politics 42% −$23
sports 6% +$74
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 118 +6.6% -3.6% 7% 6% -9.5%
all 127 +5.6% -4.4% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 7% -9.5%
10% -13.6% 6% -18.1%
15% -21.9% 5% -26.0%
20% -29.6% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$514) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×12.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage115d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $309 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $403 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $405 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $391 $0 -0%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $347 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $325 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $597 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $353 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $298 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $301 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $362 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $313 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $345 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 05 $601 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $328 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $270 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $317 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $360 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $715 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,424 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $269 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 33h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $347 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $347 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $349 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $350 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $333 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $333 29d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $309 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 397 history records