Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c3a…9935 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$131 (+10%) realized +$132 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$114
14 days+$154
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$48
crypto 5% +$68
other 3% −$24
politics 3% +$4
sports 1% +$5
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.4% -6.4% 43% 26% +3.4%
≤30d 43 -5.3% -14.4% 42% 33% -1.5%
≤90d 43 -5.3% -14.4% 42% 33% -1.5%
all 43 -5.3% -14.4% 42% 33% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 33% -1.5%
10% -22.6% 33% -11.0%
15% -30.0% 21% -19.6%
20% -36.9% 19% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 64¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+13%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 91¢ $22 $29 +$8 (+36%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 58¢ 15¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 60¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 18¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-79%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 35¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+109%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $37 −$10 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $111 +$11 +10%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $23 −$2 -9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $65 −$11 -17%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$4 -14%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $54 +$66 +122%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $41 +$40 +98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $139 +$13 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $72 −$13 -18%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $12 +$17 +140%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 +$15 +108%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $36 −$23 -62%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $10 +$11 +108%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $44 +$12 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -21%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $7 −$6 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +115%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9 +$3 +28%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $59 +$68 +114%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 −$17 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $13 −$12 -93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $5 +$3 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $9 −$1 -15%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $41 +$10 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 77¢ $1 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $5 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $21 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $11 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $1 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $0 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $27 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $13 15h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 16¢ $3 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $14 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $8 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 57¢ $39 30h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 32h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 32h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 32h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $87 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.03 · official $73.03 (match) · 316 history records