Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c39…0e5c crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+5%) realized +$29 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$128
crypto 29% −$16
sports 20% −$46
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 40% +2.2%
≤30d 25 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 40% +2.2%
≤90d 25 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 40% +2.2%
all 28 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 43% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 43% -4.0%
10% -15.3% 39% -13.2%
15% -23.5% 36% -21.6%
20% -31.0% 25% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage410d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 11¢ 50¢ $4 $18 +$14 (+350%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$11 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$11 +44%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$18 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$19 +47%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $58 −$40 -69%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$11 +48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $4 −$2 -50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$35 +174%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $51 +$2 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$54 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 09 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $20 +$31 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL KOLESIE 33¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 31¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL REKONIX 43¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 43¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $59 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $60 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 15h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 25¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 35¢ $31 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $17 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.83 · official $21.83 (match) · 68 history records