Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9C 0x9c36…0f09 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$354 (+20%) realized +$358 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$161
14 days+$293
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$274
sports 12% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.4% -9.9% 57% 57% +2.3%
≤30d 25 +20.3% +8.8% 60% 60% +10.0%
≤90d 25 +20.3% +8.8% 60% 60% +10.0%
all 25 +20.3% +8.8% 60% 60% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 60% +10.0%
10% -1.6% 40% -0.6%
15% -11.1% 24% -10.2%
20% -19.8% 24% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$15 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage9d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $53 +$8 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$45 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $144 +$26 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$7 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$7 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 −$37 -92%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $40 +$11 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 +$13 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $40 +$28 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $251 +$127 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $161 +$17 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $86 −$59 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $111 +$38 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$94 +481%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $39 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $72 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $72 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $22 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 24h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.16 · official $204.16 (match) · 135 history records