Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9C 0x9c36…69a3 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$331 (+21%) realized +$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +40.2% +26.8% 75% 75% +19.3%
≤30d 8 +40.2% +26.8% 75% 75% +19.3%
≤90d 8 +40.2% +26.8% 75% 75% +19.3%
all 8 +40.2% +26.8% 75% 75% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 75% +19.3%
10% +14.7% 75% +7.9%
15% +3.6% 75% -2.5%
20% -6.5% 50% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$110 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $300 +$197 +66%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $330 −$25 -8%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $262 +$127 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $129 +$133 +103%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $200 −$195 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $155 +$174 +112%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $115 +$41 +35%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $70 +$45 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $300 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $305 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $330 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $262 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $129 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $200 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $155 42h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 57¢ $155 42h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 40¢ $115 43h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $35 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records