Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9C 0x9c2b…1388 sports 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,165 (+3%) realized −$1,274 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%76W / 87L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$430est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$1,263
14 days−$2,759
30 days−$1,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -52.9% -57.4% 30% 24% -26.7%
≤30d 163 -26.3% -33.3% 47% 34% -12.2%
≤90d 163 -26.3% -33.3% 47% 34% -12.2%
all 163 -26.3% -33.3% 47% 34% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 34% -12.2%
10% -39.7% 27% -20.6%
15% -45.5% 19% -28.3%
20% -50.9% 17% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$121 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized−$1,274
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses76 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions4
Markets (closed)163 / 167
History coverage21d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 93¢ 84¢ $700 $635 −$65 (-9%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner RED Canids 14¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner RED Canids 18¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner LOUD 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 44¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Sentinels 27¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner paiN Gaming 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 13¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 23¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Cloud9 24¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner LOS 18¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOUD 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Karmine Corp 42¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Vivo Keyd Stars 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner EDward Gaming 23¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BetBoom Team 18¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 54¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner JD Gaming 22¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Nemiga Gaming 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner G2 Esports 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$92 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $501 +$27 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$197 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$322 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $403 +$133 +33%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$12 -48%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $287 −$50 -17%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $159 +$187 +118%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $540 −$100 -18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $109 −$107 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $148 −$15 -10%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $11 −$10 -97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $119 −$119 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $132 −$132 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $155 −$155 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $392 +$90 +23%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $179 −$179 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $183 −$183 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $403 +$149 +37%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $704 −$100 -14%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $301 +$51 +17%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $702 +$70 +10%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $303 +$184 +61%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $97 −$96 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $317 −$317 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $564 −$564 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 87¢ $201 13m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 96¢ $501 30m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $486 37m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 5¢ $10 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 7¢ $10 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 57¢ $203 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 37¢ $51 1h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 14¢ $41 3h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 18¢ $31 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $394 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 54¢ $304 11h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $302 11h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $528 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $305 12h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $501 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $400 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $203 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $526 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $204 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 24¢ $51 15h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 84¢ $301 23h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $101 24h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 24¢ $23 24h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 18¢ $10 27h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 14¢ $10 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team WE 13¢ $13 34h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 24¢ $26 34h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $378 35h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 14¢ $51 35h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 66¢ $202 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.39 · official $635.39 (match) · 460 history records