Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c29…8c43 other 383 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,534 (+7%) realized +$13,479 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%104W / 274L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days−$10
14 days−$156
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$7,531
sports 2% −$32
politics 0% −$662
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -23.4% -30.7% 31% 19% -9.9%
≤30d 106 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 32% -16.7%
≤90d 267 -20.4% -28.0% 28% 25% -18.7%
all 378 -18.4% -26.2% 28% 25% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 25% -6.3%
10% -33.2% 20% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -39.7% 17% -23.5%
20% -45.6% 14% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$542 vs −$181 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$13,479
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses104 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions5
Markets (closed)378 / 383
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$500
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connell Joel Schwaerzler 0¢ 2¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Felipe Meligeni Alves 0¢ 3¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Remy Bertola 0¢ 54¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $52 −$84 -163%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $46 +$8 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $30 +$2 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si Jun 22 $56 −$42 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $208 −$26 -13%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $204 +$281 +138%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $102 −$64 -62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $92 −$90 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $41 +$219 +535%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $255 −$219 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 20 $26 −$16 -62%
Heilbronn: Joel Schwaerzler vs Matej Dodig Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Prostejov: Tristan Boyer vs Filip Jianu Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 20 $18 +$1 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $26 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $26 −$21 -81%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $48 −$45 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 19 $78 −$25 -32%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 19 $145 −$20 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$7 +126%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $77 +$177 +230%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $156 +$273 +175%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $259 +$87 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$17 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $259 −$108 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $208 −$63 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $105 −$57 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$22 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $254 +$196 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $31 −$24 -77%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 +$13 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $52 +$21 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -48%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Jun 05 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $154 +$96 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Felipe Meligeni Alves 4¢ $21 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 3¢ $5 6m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 7¢ $26 27m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 31¢ $106 28m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 40¢ $153 29m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 19¢ $20 49m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 19¢ $10 50m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 8¢ $21 56m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch SELL Florent Bax 18¢ $29 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 7¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 22¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch SELL Florent Bax 47¢ $26 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 24¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 19¢ $31 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 29¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 3¢ $8 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 4¢ $6 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 7¢ $5 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 25¢ $15 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 14¢ $51 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 28¢ $14 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $58 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $208 23h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 84¢ $277 23h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 84¢ $92 23h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 79¢ $106 24h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 79¢ $9 24h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 79¢ $1 24h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 34¢ $204 24h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo SELL Adolfo Vallejo 12¢ $38 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.05 · official $283.26 (match) · 3500 history records