trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? | Yes | 19¢ | 36¢ | $3 | $6 | +$3 (+91%) |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | No | 73¢ | 93¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 (+27%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Ebola case in the US by June 30? | Yes | 11¢ | 14¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+32%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 96¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+16%) |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 72¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+37%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? | Yes | 6¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-33%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -85% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$6 | +60% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 07 | $5 | +$3 | +67% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4? | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? | Jun 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? | Jun 06 | $1 | +$1 | +124% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5? | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? | Jun 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June | Jun 04 | $1 | +$2 | +201% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? | Jun 04 | $2 | +$5 | +231% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 3? | Jun 04 | $1 | +$1 | +55% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? | Jun 03 | $3 | −$2 | -80% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | Jun 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? | Jun 03 | $3 | $0 | +16% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? | Jun 02 | $2 | +$3 | +160% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +12.2% | +1.6% | 75% | 50% | +28.5% |
| ≤30d | 19 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 53% | 42% | +7.5% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 53% | 42% | +7.5% |
| all | 19 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 53% | 42% | +7.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.5% | 42% | +7.5% |
| 10% | -15.4% | 37% | -2.8% |
| 15% | -23.6% | 37% | -12.2% |
| 20% | -31.1% | 37% | -20.8% |