Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c21…e45b other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+4%) realized +$48 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate80%82W / 20L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$10
14 days+$21
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$24
sports 38% +$13
politics 3% +$10
weather 3% +$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +17.1% +5.9% 88% 75% +7.8%
≤30d 102 -1.1% -10.6% 80% 21% -5.9%
≤90d 102 -1.1% -10.6% 80% 21% -5.9%
all 102 -1.1% -10.6% 80% 21% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 21% -5.9%
10% -19.1% 9% -14.9%
15% -26.9% 7% -23.1%
20% -34.1% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses82 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage25d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $32 +$12 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +34%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $18 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 28, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -79%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $29 $0 +1%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +11%
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $34 +$1 +2%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $31 +$3 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $42 +$1 +2%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $31 +$1 +5%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $30 +$1 +2%
Will FBC Melgar win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 31 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will Sport Boys Association win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $18 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $22 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $21 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 86¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $2 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.79 · official $28.19 · 226 history records